As every club inches closer to their final half-dozen games of the year, the competition in the English Premier League for the Golden Boot is narrowing down to a two-horse race. On one side of the track is Tottenham’s Harry Kane, and across from him is Mo Salah from Liverpool. The two are locked in a draw as of April 12 – each sporting 19 goals on their 2020-2021 stat sheet.
While we have seen the season end in a tie before (or a three-way tie which included Salah in 2018-19), we think it is worth taking one of these guys to end the season atop the goal scorer leaderboard. But which star is the better player to bet will take home the Premier League Golden Boot in 2021?
“Harry Kane” by SKYsports is licensed under CC BY 3.0
The Case for Harry Kane Winning the Golden Boot
When looking at the odds on the best online sportsbooks, Harry Kane is the slightest of favourites to win the Golden Boot over Salah. Kane has played one less match than Salah – giving him the slight edge in goals per game (0.66 to 0.63). His remaining schedule includes a few very favourable games. Kane will play Sheffield United and Southampton – who rank second and third in the EPL in total goals allowed.
Harry Kane scored against both clubs early in the year while also assisting on four goals in Tottenham’s 5-2 win over Southampton. If Tottenham puts up another enormous offensive performance against Southampton – and it is Kane this time scoring the majority of the goals, he could lock up the Golden Boot.
The Case for Mohamed Salah Winning the Golden Boot
Mo Salah’s been a more efficient and important goal scorer this season than Kane. He slightly beats Kane in goals per 90 minutes (0.68 to 0.67 goals per 90) while also holding more considerable advantages in goal conversion and shot accuracy. Salah’s remaining schedule – like Kane – is also quite favourable.
Salah and Liverpool have Leeds United, West Brom, Crystal Palace, Southampton, and Newcastle remaining on the schedule – meaning Liverpool wraps the season up by playing five of six teams who have allowed the most goals in the league. The only thing that could hinder Salah is if the club continues in the Champions League (we shall find out this week), and his focus is on winning that title and not winning a third Golden Boot.
“The Golden Boot” by Getty is licensed under CC BY 3.0
Can Anyone Else Challenge for the Golden Boot?
We can see only two other guys – somehow – pulling off the improbable and passing Kane and Salah for the lead in goals this season.
The first guy is Bruno Fernandes, who trails the leaders by three goals. Fernandes and Man United’s remaining schedule features some very favourable matches. Four of Man U remaining games this season are against clubs in the bottom half of the fixture. A fifth game is against 10th place Leeds – who have allowed the sixth-most goals in the EPL (through 31 matches). If he can get hot in those five games and muster at least a goal in either their match against Leicester City and Liverpool, he could challenge for the Golden Boot.
The other guy – who is a longer shot than Fernandes – that could go on a scoring tear over the last month and a half of the season is Son Heung-Min. Despite sharing the pitch with Harry Kane – Heung-Min is tied for fourth in the EPL with 14 goals. He has a better goal conversion rate and shot accuracy than Kane. If Kane somehow missed some time over the final six weeks of the season, Heung-Min’s chances to score will significantly increase to the point there is the smallest of opportunities he ends the season as the EPL’s top goal scorer.
No matter how you slice it, the race for the 2021 EPL Golden Boot has been one of the most entertaining parts of the season – especially after Man City went on their midseason run, and it looked impossible (still unlikely not impossible) to catch them in the standings. We hope you enjoy watching the race play out over the final six/seven matches of the season as much as we do.