2026 World Cup: Who Will Claim the Final Four European Spots in North America
The draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup was made back in December, with each of the qualified nations discovering their potential path to the MetLife Stadium final on July 19th. But to say some teams have a more testing route than others would be an understatement. While France and England will face difficult paths from the get-go, the favorite to win the tournament with online betting sites has a somewhat easier time ahead of them. That, of course, is reigning European Champions Spain, a team which the latest online World Cup odds make a 9/2 favorite to claim the crown for the second time. La Roja will face debutant minnows Cape Verde in the group stage, as well as Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, two teams that aren’t considered a threat, despite the latter twice winning the trophy eons ago. But even though the group stage draw has indeed been made, there are still six spots up for grabs at this summer’s tournament. Europe still has four playoffs to hold, games which will take place in March. At the same time, two intercontinental playoffs will also take place, determining the last six teams headed to North America. So, who are the favorites to claim those final four European spots? Let’s take a look.
UEFA Path A – Italy
Italy is the second most successful team in the history of the World Cup, winning four titles throughout its illustrious tenure. However, they have shockingly not ventured onto the global stage since suffering a second straight group stage exit back in 2014. Since then, playoff agony against Sweden in 2018 and North Macedonia in 2022 has forced the storied Azzurri to watch on from home, and a similar fate could await them this year. Italy was ransacked by an Erling Haaland-powered Norway in qualifying, with the prolific Manchester City man hitting three times in two games against the Azzurri – one in a 3-0 win in Oslo, as well as a brace in the stunning 4-1 win in the San Siro. Now, Italy is at the mercy of the playoffs once again. They will meet Northern Ireland in the semifinals before facing either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina in a final that will be held on away turf. Despite having to travel for the decider, Italy should still have enough about them to progress, and it would be considered a monumental failure if they were to miss out for their third consecutive tournament.
UEFA Path B – Ukraine
Ukraine has fallen off somewhat in recent years, with stars such as Oleksandr Zinchenko, Ruslan Malinovskyi, and Roman Yaremchuk all looking like shadows of the players they once were. Now, the new generation is led by younger stars. Paris Saint-Germain’s Ilya Zabarnyi is the anchor of the back line, while Benfica’s Georgiy Sudakov is the new orchestrator in chief. While the Ukrainians aren’t the team that thoroughly outclassed Iceland and Bosnia in qualifying via the playoffs for Euro 2024, they won’t face the toughest of opposition in the upcoming showdown either. Basically, they’re the best of a bad bunch. They will play a disjointed Sweden in the semifinals, as well as either Poland or Albania in the final, both of which will be at “home.” We expect them to progress, perhaps dramatically, to North America.
UEFA Path C – Turkey
Turkey hasn’t featured at the FIFA World Cup since finishing third in 2002, despite qualifying for all but two of the European Championships contested since then. They were unlucky in having been drawn alongside reigning European champions Spain in their qualifying group, suffering a drubbing at home before securing a spirited 2-2 draw in the away fixture in Seville. Now, they head into the playoffs for the second straight time. Back in 2022, they were well beaten by Portugal. Now, we expect them to end their 24-year wait to compete at a World Cup. They will host Romania in the semifinals, before having to travel to either Slovakia or Kosovo in the final. Whichever team comes through that clash will be huge underdogs to defeat the Turks, even on home turf.
UEFA Path D – Denmark
How Denmark didn’t secure automatic qualification for 2026 is anyone’s guess. The Danes put themselves in pole position with two games to go, sitting pretty at the top of their qualifying group. They needed to win just one of those two remaining games to qualify; however, they shockingly slipped up at home to Belarus, drawing 2-2 against the worst team in the group by some distance. That set up a crunch clash against Scotland in Glasgow with a spot at the World Cup on the line. The visitors were huge favorites to progress and dominated throughout. However, they were beaten by three absolutely sublime goals: Scott McTominay’s overhead kick, Kieran Tierney’s rocket, and Kenny McLean’s half-way line stunner. Those strikes secured the Tartan Army a return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998. Now, the Danes have to run the gauntlet of the playoffs. They will host North Macedonia first before heading on the road to face either the Republic of Ireland or the Czech Republic. We still think they’ll be in North America, but their path across the Atlantic is without question a treacherous one.
